Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  29.3  27.4  21.1  17.7  14.4  15.1  20.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.3  49.6  45.0  42.2  34.2  24.8  19.7  15.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0  89.0  61.0  66.0  43.0  50.0  10.0   5.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0 -10.0 -11.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        0.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons