Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    123.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  29.3  22.2  18.2  16.6  11.9  17.6  16.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  50.0  45.8  43.0  34.3  26.7  20.9  14.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  42.0  46.0  50.0  59.0  37.0  16.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0  -8.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons