Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  20.1  20.3  21.4  19.1  20.3  28.0  28.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.8  57.7  54.7  52.8  42.6  40.4  41.9  41.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  38.0  20.0  24.0  -1.0   1.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -9.0  -6.0  -8.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons