Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  20.4  22.9  24.3  20.8  27.4  27.4  27.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.8  55.7  52.8  48.3  41.2  40.4  43.4  43.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  17.0  37.0  25.0   4.0 -25.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0  -2.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons