Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082021 210805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  20.0  22.5  21.7  22.7  29.9  27.3  27.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  53.7  49.1  44.2  40.4  41.2  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  36.0  11.0  20.0  20.0 -17.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0  -8.0  -9.0 -10.0  -4.0   6.0   6.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons