Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210730 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  22.4  18.9  17.4  15.6  21.8  21.1  22.7  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   8.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 123.6 123.6 125.7 130.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0   2.0   8.0  36.0   5.0  62.0 104.0 111.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        0.8%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        4.1%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%       10.2%        6.9%