Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210731 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  18.1  13.1  14.1  14.3  23.3  16.7  22.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   6.0   7.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 123.6 123.6 123.6 125.7 127.9 130.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  16.0  26.0  34.0  27.0  64.0  81.0 122.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.1%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.1%        6.9%        7.0%