Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210731 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  12.6  12.7  10.8  18.7  17.4  16.7  18.3  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   7.0  12.0  21.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 123.6 125.7 125.7 127.9 127.9 125.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   4.0  34.0  45.0  65.0  85.0  86.0 115.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.4%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        3.7%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.4%       11.5%       11.5%