Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  14.2  10.6  12.8  21.0  14.9  17.5  15.7  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   8.0  16.0   9.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 123.6 125.7 125.7 130.1 130.1 125.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   4.0  60.0  52.0  48.0  81.0  66.0  76.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.0%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       13.8%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        4.3%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        6.2%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%       14.9%       12.4%