Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  14.6  20.1  23.9  21.7  24.9  19.3  20.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   6.0  10.0  12.0   6.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 123.6 125.7 127.9 130.1 130.1 125.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  26.0  36.0  67.0  43.0  43.0  67.0  65.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        6.3%        5.5%