Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  21.3  24.2  22.8  24.5  24.3  22.1  11.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   6.0   7.0  11.0  11.0   5.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 125.7 125.7 127.9 130.1 130.1 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  68.0  69.0  53.0  64.0  57.0  50.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.2%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        5.9%        5.6%