Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  23.5  21.0  20.5  21.9  18.6  18.7  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   6.0   8.0  17.0  19.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 119.4 113.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  59.0  69.0  59.0  81.0  81.0  85.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.2%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        3.1%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.8%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%        8.3%        8.9%