Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.0  19.2  19.7  18.1  19.6  14.4  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   6.0   8.0  10.0  24.0   8.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 121.5 115.5 104.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  78.0  47.0  54.0  61.0 109.0  83.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       11.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        3.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        5.0%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       11.4%       10.2%