Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  17.7  17.8  18.2  19.8  20.4  14.0  15.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  16.0  12.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 125.7 125.7 123.6 119.4 109.8  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  48.0  41.0  59.0  52.0 101.0  51.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  69.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.7%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.7%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%        8.1%        7.3%