Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  13.9  15.5  16.0  22.8  15.6  13.9  14.9  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  12.0  17.0  17.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 123.6 123.6 121.5 119.4 119.4 115.5 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  98.0  69.0  81.0  67.0  72.0  69.0  35.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.1%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       13.9%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        6.4%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        5.9%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%       12.9%       12.1%