Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  14.0  14.1  17.5  18.0  13.8  15.4  16.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  18.0  17.0  11.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 121.5 121.5 119.4 119.4 115.5 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  71.0  60.0  71.0  80.0  65.0  58.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       15.1%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.2%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       27.2%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%       11.9%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h       10.6%        9.1%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        9.1%       14.2%       11.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.8%       19.9%       15.4%