Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  13.3  16.9  18.0  11.8  14.2  10.6  11.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  11.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 114.4 110.5 103.0  94.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  60.0  50.0  42.0  40.0  30.0  19.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       14.4%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.3%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.3%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       25.0%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%       11.4%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        8.5%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%       12.0%       10.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%       15.7%       11.2%