Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    133.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.7  13.9   9.9  10.6  15.6  15.6  20.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 112.4 110.5 106.6  96.0  86.5  78.0  71.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  57.0  38.0  19.0  33.0  39.0   9.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        8.0%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        6.2%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%        2.6%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons