Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    133.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  17.1  13.7  10.5  14.2  16.2  15.8  21.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 114.4 112.4 108.5  96.0  86.5  78.0  69.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  36.0  14.0  23.0  82.0  19.0  34.0  -4.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        9.2%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        4.9%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        2.7%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons