Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    134.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  11.1   9.3  11.2  16.1  17.8  18.9  26.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 108.5 103.0  96.0  85.0  75.4  67.0  63.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  18.0  32.0  43.0  36.0  40.0  13.0  -4.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.7%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        4.9%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%        1.7%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons