Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    134.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  10.5  12.6  15.0  17.8  18.9  22.1  19.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 104.8 101.2  99.4  94.3  88.0  80.8  72.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  52.0  64.0  36.0  46.0  27.0  19.0 -24.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.3%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        4.5%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        1.7%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons