Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.0  12.7  16.5  16.5  16.2  16.5  22.7  23.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 101.2  96.0  91.1  78.0  67.0  60.7  58.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  80.0  83.0  55.0  44.0   6.0 -25.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        6.6%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        1.9%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons