Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  13.7  15.8  16.1  13.8  20.0  23.6  22.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0  97.7  91.1  85.0  72.9  64.8  60.7  61.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  78.0  61.0  56.0  20.0   7.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  65.0  59.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        7.7%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        5.9%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%        2.1%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons