Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    136.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.9  14.4  14.1  18.6  26.9  26.8  26.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.3  88.0  82.2  76.7  65.9  60.7  61.7  62.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  40.0  36.0  25.0  34.0   2.0  -8.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  53.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons