Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  16.5  14.1  15.7  23.6  28.1  24.3  32.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  82.2  76.7  71.7  63.8  61.7  63.8  64.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  47.0  36.0  24.0  23.0 -26.0   0.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  62.0  57.0  47.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons