Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.4  16.0  18.3  22.7  24.0  23.4  34.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.2  71.7  66.7  62.0  55.7  55.7  55.7  55.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  36.0  62.0  45.0 -39.0 -28.0  20.0  20.0  U  N  N  N VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  50.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons