Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092021 210806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    139.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  29.7  31.8  27.2  28.0  32.3  37.7  37.7  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.8  63.8  63.8  63.8  65.9  68.2  71.7  71.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -35.0  -9.0  19.0  13.0  14.0 -20.0 -20.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  49.0  43.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons