Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  28.1  23.9  25.7  33.4  28.7  24.5  24.5  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 118.6 104.8  94.3  78.0  64.8  51.6  51.6  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  45.0  74.0  61.0 -41.0  24.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -7.0  -6.0 -10.0 -14.0 -22.0 -20.0 -20.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%