Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  25.6  25.9  29.0  33.4  34.4  32.8  32.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   6.0   7.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 112.4 103.0  96.0  78.0  69.3  61.7  61.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  64.0  49.0  24.0  -3.0   8.0  36.0  36.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -9.0  -9.0 -17.0 -24.0 -21.0 -21.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons