Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  26.0  30.3  41.0  35.2  42.3  38.4  38.4  N  N  N VU  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 106.6  97.7  89.6  79.4  75.4  69.3  69.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  59.0  17.0  27.0   7.0  -9.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0 -17.0 -18.0 -17.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons