Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  31.2  41.8  37.4  38.7  38.7  38.7  38.7  N  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         96.2  87.7  83.0  75.8  67.9  65.5  65.5  65.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  10.0 -24.0  14.0 -35.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  U VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0 -14.0 -11.0 -13.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  F  F VF  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons