Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  42.2  38.8  37.9  41.9  40.1  40.1  40.1  U VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.3  83.0  77.2  71.7  64.3  58.8  58.8  58.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0 -21.0   4.0  -4.0 -12.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  70.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -17.0 -13.0 -15.0 -17.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons