Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  33.2  34.3  33.6  33.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.6  73.0  65.5  59.8  54.7  54.7  54.7  54.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0 -10.0 -32.0 -26.0 -12.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons