Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102021 210804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    115.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  30.8  32.5  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  27.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         87.2  88.6  96.1 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   0.0 -10.0 -36.0 -36.0 -36.0 -36.0 -36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons