Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    105.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  17.7  19.3  22.0  24.4  30.8  33.8  29.7  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  14.0  12.0  11.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 122.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0 104.0 118.0 125.0 125.0 131.0 128.0 104.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 -13.0 -11.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        3.2%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.4%       29.9%       20.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%       13.7%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%       13.7%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       13.7%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%       38.0%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%       16.3%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.6%       21.3%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%       16.9%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       20.6%       14.3%