Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  19.3  24.9  28.4  23.6  37.8  31.9  19.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  17.0  18.0  15.0  12.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 115.7  92.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  92.0 108.0 123.0 167.0 140.0 148.0  98.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0 -11.0 -22.0 -15.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.1%        9.4%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       23.5%       47.3%       35.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       30.0%       20.7%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       30.0%       17.9%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       28.5%       16.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.3%       53.9%       34.6%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%       30.3%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.8%       24.0%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%       20.8%       12.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%       22.1%       13.7%