Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  24.3  28.8  28.1  32.7  31.0  35.2  34.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  19.0  18.0  15.0  11.0   8.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 104.4  91.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 111.0 117.0 141.0 114.0  72.0  88.0  49.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        8.8%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.7%       46.0%       36.4%
 30kt / 24h       13.1%       29.7%       21.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       29.7%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       28.0%       16.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.6%       43.6%       28.6%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       20.7%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       18.7%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%       13.9%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        9.3%        5.1%