Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210808 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    108.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  27.5  29.6  30.0  29.7  37.2  32.6  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  12.0   8.0   9.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 110.7  96.6  81.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0 101.0 133.0 130.0  80.0  45.0  89.0  -4.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0 -10.0 -11.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        3.0%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       21.8%       16.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        9.4%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        9.4%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%        9.4%        5.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       17.7%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        5.2%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        5.7%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.4%        1.8%