Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  23.0  28.3  29.9  31.8  31.6  30.0  27.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  14.0  13.0  10.0  11.0  13.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 107.3  94.4  77.7  63.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   126.0 167.0 168.0 131.0  63.0  87.0  65.0 -18.0  F VF VF  F  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  81.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%       11.7%       12.4%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       49.0%       42.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.9%       35.3%       27.1%
 35kt / 24h       14.7%       35.3%       25.0%
 40kt / 24h       14.7%       35.3%       25.0%
 45kt / 36h       16.6%       33.0%       24.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       13.6%        9.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%       10.9%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        7.2%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%