Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  29.7  30.3  31.7  32.1  30.9  27.3  26.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  13.0  12.0   9.0  13.0   9.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 100.7  86.6  76.0  56.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 151.0 137.0 106.0  64.0  85.0  30.0  37.0  F VF VF  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  83.0  82.0  85.0  82.0  83.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -9.0  -9.0  -8.0  -2.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        4.7%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       24.4%       20.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       13.7%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       13.7%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       13.7%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.1%       12.8%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        3.6%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.6%        3.5%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%