Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  33.6  33.1  30.6  33.3  32.6  28.3  27.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  11.0   9.0  12.0  12.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 114.3 107.3  92.4  77.7  63.6  49.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 102.0  97.0  48.0  62.0  41.0  -6.0  15.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  82.0  82.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0 -10.0  -7.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       11.2%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.7%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.7%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        4.9%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%