Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  29.8  28.7  28.5  33.2  30.7  28.3  23.9  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0   9.0  10.0  13.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 117.0 110.1 103.6  88.0  77.7  57.9  46.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  87.0  95.0 106.0  39.0 -15.0  -6.0  14.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  79.0  73.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -12.0  -9.0  -9.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.2%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%