Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  28.4  31.2  31.6  29.0  25.4  25.1  24.7  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  11.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 112.3 107.9 105.7  95.5  71.5  52.0  41.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  95.0  72.0  40.0   0.0  48.0  10.0 -17.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  64.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0  -7.0  -5.0  -7.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%