Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  27.3  27.7  34.5  30.2  24.0  23.8  20.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 112.9 108.6 106.5  87.7  62.9  51.7  38.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  79.0  63.0  25.0   2.0  28.0   5.0 -41.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -10.0  -8.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%