Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  30.7  35.5  29.8  26.7  24.3  26.2  23.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   6.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.7 106.5 100.5  93.0  70.8  53.8  42.4  32.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  71.0  14.0  33.0  29.0  17.0 -12.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  71.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -1.0  -6.0  -5.0   1.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%