Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  34.7  28.3  24.2  20.7  20.8  20.8  23.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4  94.8  84.3  75.0  54.8  42.4  34.1  32.1  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  18.0   7.0  14.0   0.0  10.0  -8.0 -34.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   6.0   3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons