Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112021 210811 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  24.0  23.8  26.4  26.6  23.7  24.1  16.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.6  68.0  58.2  50.7  39.2  32.7  30.8  28.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -2.0   2.0  34.0 -26.0  -4.0   9.0  -3.0  U  U  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons