Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    100.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  33.6  32.3  34.1  26.0  31.6  23.0  24.7  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   133.0 135.0 153.0 128.0 120.0 134.0 122.0 148.0 VF VF VF  F  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  80.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0  -7.0  -3.0 -10.0  -7.0 -18.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        8.6%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       10.5%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        6.1%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        9.4%       14.3%       11.9%