Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210811 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.2  32.1  29.8  28.3  31.4  23.9  24.6  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  14.0  19.0  14.0   9.0  13.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 109.6 107.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  83.0  75.0 106.0 117.0  55.0  85.0  17.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0 -13.0 -11.0 -16.0 -23.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  F VF  F VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        3.7%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       21.8%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       11.5%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       11.5%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       10.8%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       16.2%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        4.9%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        8.1%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.0%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        6.4%        3.5%