Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122021 210811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  32.3  30.1  25.4  30.6  21.7  22.5  22.6  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  13.0  17.0  24.0  12.0   9.0  14.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  99.6  97.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  95.0 133.0 152.0 104.0  69.0  14.0  31.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -12.0 -11.0 -13.0 -25.0 -12.0  -2.0   0.0  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.4%       11.4%       16.4%
 25kt / 24h       36.3%       42.3%       39.3%
 30kt / 24h       25.8%       35.0%       30.4%
 35kt / 24h       23.2%       35.0%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h       23.2%       35.0%       29.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.9%       26.9%       24.4%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%       10.6%        9.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%       14.4%       10.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        8.4%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        8.2%        4.3%